Like many things that seem unintuitive that actually work in life and nature, mass adoption of Android may create the most ideal environment for Apple products to thrive.
I was recently reading Chris Rawson’s “Four Android Myths Lazy Analysts Love” and it struck a chord. In the last decade, the folks at Apple have proven they are masterful in crafting precise plans to achieve marketing objectives, hit manufacturing targets, and of course, sculpting market conditions and economic machinery to out-maneuver competitors while dominating key product and service segments.
Is it so far fetched an idea that the maker of all things “i” actually understands the Android platform better than Google itself?
We can’t underestimate Apple’s technical competence and situational awareness of Android, an open-source platform. Google’s recent decision to tightly control access to Honeycomb may be a move to thwart the distinct competitive advantage that Apple has in the mobile OS market. Unlike typical competitive topographies, Apple can see everything Google is doing with Android, but intimate details of iOS are carefully concealed.
There’s an element of the Android vs iOS debate that Tends to confound most who attempt to make sense of it and Rawson is quick to point out the flaw in thinking about Android as a “company”.
“Analysts like to treat Android like it’s a single entity so that they can make impressive pie charts where Android looks like Pac-Man gobbling up iOS, but once you split that up by manufacturer, the story looks a lot different. It’s virtually the same story as the PC market; Apple’s share of the PC market looks trifling indeed when you compare it against Windows-running PCs as a whole, but when you break it down by each PC manufacturer, Apple definitely more than holds its own. When you break it down by profitability, the contest isn’t even close; Apple owns 90 percent of the “high-end” PC market.”
Simply put, we continue to attempt to measure success using outdated metrics while tripping over a key issue – it may not be possible to accurately assess comparative performances because the dynamics of Android are so different than those of iOS. Compounded by the mistaken assumption that Apple “products” are single-dimensioned bundles of goods, makes it very easy to get an incomplete version of reality.
It’s clear that Android will out-pace iOS with its rapidly growing installed base. But is it possible that Apple management is donning cheerleader outfits and encouraging this outcome? If so, how could that possibly benefit Apple?
The answers to these questions may exist in the satisfaction scores of the two OSes. The scores vary widely, but in general, Apple’s offerings, specifically iPhone and iPad, have scored significantly higher than those products running Android. Arguably a low-granularity rating, JD Power’s Power Circle rating places Apple at 5/5 with smart phone products from Motorola and HTC at 3/5.
But what’s unclear about these scores is the relationship between customers who are dissatisfied with their Android-based products and their propensity (and ability) to switch to Apple products.
Is it possible that dissatisfied Android users form the basis for a sales-rich stream of new Apple customers. If true, and this flow of unhappy customers doubles in size, is it likely that Apple’s ability to dominate the market from a profit perspective, also grows rapidly?
Without question, Apple is focused on customers who are likely to spend more money (on average) than those who are premium-product-averse. Android buyers, for the most part, have been well-documented as price-conscious consumers; they typically have no strong feelings about quality of experience or features that are associated with other premium products and services. In many cases, unknowingly, they purchase Android-based devices because they are unwilling to pay the premiums associated with iOS-based devices.
Until an Android customer becomes dissatisfied with the experience of the device or the OS (or both), they’re not likely to be compelled to pay for premium products. But most important – Apple is unlikely to be interested in them as a customer either. Ergo, Android performs a vital role that helps Apple exceed even its own goals.
Just Sayin’ …















This goal seems unlikely. I do think that Apple does leave a deliberate opening for Android to exist by eschewing certain features and delaying the move to multiple carriers here in the United States. Perhaps Apple wishes to insulate themselves from cries of monopoly and such.
I think Apple would prefer that the customer NEVER experiment with Android for two good reasons:
Google is iterating pretty fast and may address Android’s weaknesses sooner that Apple can address the weaknesses of iOS
Android customers might have invested a certain amount in apps and over time may just learn to accept any weaknesses Google does not address.
In my opinion Google saw the damage iOS as an networked app based system could do to their web app ad-revenue business model and they did the only thing they could to survive: give away an OS (Android or Chrome) they spend a significant amount of dollars to grow and maintain. In the same way, Apple adds value by providing and updating iOS for no additional charge in order to sell the hardware it is unique to.
The decision to deprecate Flash in iOS has had strategic consequences that I’m sure Apple is very aware of. The upside is that they do not have Adobe making decisions about features Apple would like to add to the platform they own.
Great theory. I think it is a fair assumption that you are correct. For the same reason that the Apple computer sales increased due to the increased adoption to Windows OS. Apple was able to build a niche with both novice and professional computer users and kept that market share as the number of computer users increased worldwide. The key to this strategy is maintaining that strong core audience and market share.
The idea that you can never be all things to all people drives opportunity for others as well. The smartphone market should never be fully dominated by one OS or another. Diversity should breed innovation.
The next innovation should be a true web OS where the phone may be smart, but is in essence a dummy terminal of your cloud data. Closest to this is Moto ATRIX, but that seems to have been rushed to market. http://www.crunchgear.com/…/motorola-xoom-and-atrix-sales-disappointing/
Cheers
This article is flawed.
1) The iPod and iPad stories illustrate that Apple can thrive even when the competition is losing.
2) “It’s clear that Android will out-pace iOS with its rapidly growing installed base.” No, it is not clear. Who knows what might happen if Apple can increase production, and become available on more carriers and in more countries? Look at what happened when the iPhone came to Verizon.
3) Analysts like to talk about lock-in, and switching costs. Apple can’t be happy when a potential customer buys a Android phone, signs a two year contract with Sprint, and invests hundreds of dollars in applets and accessories.
4) “intimate details of iOS are carefully concealed” Wrong! Google Maps was already on the iPhone when the iPhone was first demonstrated at Macworld in 2007. All you have to do to get intimate details is join the developer program at the appropriate level – like thousands have already.
mtm63, Excellent points. I think there is some advantage to having future (potential) Apple customers experiment with Android, if for no other reason than to pre-qualify potential buyers. The cost of trying to qualify prospects who are likely to purchase Apple products is not insignificant, and Android may be naturally doing this for Apple.
Philly,
Your point are very good. Some of my predictions may not hold or mimc patterns of the last decade.
With regard to intimate details, I wasn’t referring to the details available to all developers. I was referring to the advantages Apple has competing with a platform that is open-source. Apple can openly see ALL of Google’s code; Google doesn’t have the ability to see ALL of Apple’s code.
While your point #3 is very good, consumers (and businesses) desperate for better products have been known to pay those switching costs.
Apple may be wishing Android to do well to kill everything else and make all other competition unprofitable. No one on the Android side will be making any money, so no one will be doing much research and development.
Android outpaced iOS?
I believe you are only referring to the iPhone perhaps it is too embarrassing to pit a combination of builds by different makers (androids) against just the iPhone.
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